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News: Gazprom has become a locomotive of the Russian stock market – Expert

The Russian stock market started the day very cheerfully, and already during the first hour of trading came close to the resistance of 2200 points on the Moscow Exchange Index. This is where it all ended today: investors began to fix speculative profits in anticipation of new signals.

The only exception was Gazprom, which did not even think to slow down. By the end of the main trades, the paper went up by 8.8%. The main driver of its growth is a huge dividend yield exceeding 20%, which has only increased due to the recent fall in share prices.

Previously, many analysts did not rule out a real pre-dividend rally in Gazprom with quotes going to the region of 300 rubles. regardless of the dynamics of other highly liquid securities. So far, however, it is necessary to grow almost 30% more to this mark.

Among the leaders of today’s growth is the “daughter” of the gas monopoly “Gazpromneft” (+3.9%). Investors believe that if the parent company pays dividends, then the subsidiary will not get away with it.

A little better than other blue chips was Sberbank (+3.4%), which is often viewed as an indicator of market sentiment. Now it shows that buyers remain strong.









This is also evidenced by the dynamics of MTS shares, which today have fallen in price by a percentage. These papers are traditionally considered protective in the period of stock cataclysms, and speculators dump them in the presence of more promising ideas than receiving stable dividends from the telecom operator.

ADRs of Tinkoff Group grew almost twice as much as Sberbank. The paper is far from the most liquid, but some analysts believe that Tinkoff’s receipts can outpace the growth of recognized leaders in the banking sector, Sberbank and VTB, by tens of percent. However, drawdowns on these receipts are usually much more powerful.

A little blown away from the highs of the day, “Rosneft” and “Lukoil”. They are under heavy pressure from the relatively low price of oil and the threat of the West to introduce the notorious “ceiling”. And if about the “ceiling” is still written with a pitchfork on the water, then the situation with oil is alarming.

While the quotes of “black gold” are trying to stay above $90 per barrel, without taking the $92 mark, which would pave the way for a movement to $105. Major players fear that demand for oil will fall due to a slowdown in global economic growth.

“The increase in key rates by the leading central banks will put additional pressure on the global economy and, therefore, limit the potential for an increase in oil demand,” warns Mikhail Sheibe, an analyst at Sberbank CIB.

The fact that the threat of global stagflation is quite real, says the new assessment of the US economy. So, the Fed yesterday lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 from 1.7% to 0.2%.

The Russian currency ignores oil fears, adding 3% per day. By the end of the main trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar was worth 58.7 rubles.

“The ruble is supported by the approach of the tax period, when the supply of foreign currency traditionally increases on the part of exporters. Some easing of geopolitical fears is also playing its role, the surge of which yesterday caused a sharp weakening of the ruble to two-month lows. However, the risks of new sanctions remain high and could trigger another wave of ruble asset sales. However, as long as the situation on the world market of raw materials ensures a consistently high inflow of export earnings to the country, the ruble is protected from serious depreciation,” believes Dmitry Babin from BCS.

It is worth adding to this that today the “toxic” currency was sold by those who bought it earlier in anticipation of the imminent introduction of a budget rule and geopolitical risks.

Earlier, some financiers expected the strengthening of the Russian currency in the September tax period to 58 rubles. per dollar. Perhaps we will see this mark, but for the time being we should not count on a more serious growth of the ruble exchange rate.

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