News: Equity Market: Oil vs. Dividends Battle Continues – Expert

The Russian stock market started today with a decline, which was facilitated by the technical factor, cheaper oil and new threats of sanctions. Yesterday, the Moscow Exchange Index failed to break through the resistance of 2200 points, so it is quite logical that traders trading on technical analysis began taking profits.

Most of the blue chips are on sale: in the first hour and a half of trading, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by 2.7%.

Went under the mark of $ 89 per barrel and oil. In many ways, this was facilitated by the information that the EU is starting consultations over the weekend on the issue of introducing a price ceiling for Russian oil, and large oil traders, apparently, were wondering if they could buy oil from Russia for $40-50.

Oil is also against the inevitability of a global economic recession, which so far has been denied only by high-ranking US and EU officials. A decline in production always leads to a reduction in demand for energy resources. The goal of the movement of oil quotes is the area of ​​$85, but not the fact that it will be achieved.

However, the “dividend factor” can again play on the side of the “bulls”. Yesterday, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Gazprom, Famil Sadygov, said that a significant amount of funds is planned to be used to pay interim dividends for the first 6 months of 2022, thereby instilling confidence in investors that there will still be dividends for Gazprom.

Now the dividend yield of Gazprom shares exceeds 22%, and at any time they can start buying again. Almost all analysts are confident that if Gazprom’s shareholder meeting approves payments on September 30, then the company’s shares will skyrocket.

Lukoil is trading much better than the market, from which they have been waiting for the second month to announce the distribution of semi-annual profits.

On September 28, NovaTEK shareholders must also approve the payment of dividends. In terms of risks and future returns, NovaTEK is more interesting than Gazprom, which has severely reduced gas exports to Europe.

Much in the results of the day will depend on the dynamics of foreign exchanges. While stock Europe and US futures are steadily falling. However, the S&P500 index is very close to strong technical support and is also locally oversold. Therefore, if American investors start buying with the opening of stock trading, this will improve the situation on the commodity market and allow the Moscow Exchange Index to win back the morning’s losses – or at least a significant part of them.

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